I like Cloud Computing in that one... see if he's good enough. Stretch's Stone is my longshot to hit the board.

I don't like the idea of it only being an 8 entry field with the likelihood of a scratch or 2. I believe Cloud Computing will go off as the favorite with Ortiz aboard and think at post time you'll be lucky to get 5/2 but on the the other hand Stretch's Stones odds will balloon to something ridiculous. I really am just wondering if Irish War Cry can bounce back...here's to hoping for a score!

Keeneland race 6 I've got #4 Yockey's Warrior as my bet. Hope his odds stay at the ML.
the fifth at Santa Anita I like the 1 horse adding lasix and getting back to 1 mile. Tough spot, but I'll take my chances!

Here's to inflated bankrolls!

Well that answered my questions about Irish War Cry...fukin Rajiv!

Yep! Good on Irish War Cry bouncing back and everyone else...
First time in the 93 years that a maiden has won the Blue Grass Stakes.
Throw a dart this year... you've got as a good a chance as any of coming up with the Derby winner!

It's wide open...I'd bet the favorite goes off at 6 or even 7-1! When I hit the trifecta in 2006, this was the board
Barbaro 8-1
Bluegrass Cat 22-1
Steppenwolfer 13-1

$2 Trifecta paid $13,000 and change...Barbaro was the post time favorite at 8-1! Feels like this again this time around.

Holy shit I forgot last week's update... my bad.
In my defense I was in Canada last weekend.

Arkansas Derby replay:



Anyway, the final Derby prep (Arkansas Derby) was run last Saturday (April 15) and there has been some significant activity in the last week impacting the 2017 field:

1. the Arkansas Derby winner and 2 year old champion, Classic Empire, solidified his spot in the Derby field
2. Cloud Computing dropped off the list and will bypass the Derby in favor of the Preakness (this means that # 21 Untrapped draws into the field)
3. Conquest Mo Money's connections, decided not to nominate him to the race and he will also point to the Preakness
4. The connections of Thunder Snow have indicated he will run, officially, so that adds an International flare to this year's race (he is based in Dubai and has also run in GB)

The current top 20 (or so) contenders are at the link below. There is a chance #13 Malagacy also defects, but nothing official yet.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard

Meet Patch, the one-eyes horse in the Kentucky Derby. He got the 2nd worst post position (#20) and all of his 19 foes will break from his blind side to the inside of him. Could be a wild start to the race!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/animalia/wp/2017/05/03/a-one-eyed-horse-named-patch-has-a-chance-of-winning-the-kentucky-derby/?utm_term=.58f6bcda5cdb

There's a nice pic of his eye socket at the link above....


....the field drew in yesterday. I'll make my losing picks tomorrow and then let this thread die out the way it's been wanting to for months.

Here we go Peeps...
My picks are gonna force me to quit my job if they come in so saying that here it goes...
$2 Trifecta Box 6/14/17/18
$1 Supafecta Box 6/14/17/18

Lots of horse luck to your picks Peeps!

I'm down with Irish War Cry and Classic Empire to a lesser extent. Dont really have strong confidence in any one horse at all though. You think State of Honor can hang going 10F? I get the potential sloppy track angle and his early speed, but he's lost ground in all 6 route races to date after a couple of nice wins going shorter. I'll let him beat me.

My bomb is probably Practical Joke. His running line is among the best in the field, but I have doubts about the distance. At 9F he might be my top pick, 10 is different. I'll use him anyway...
I also like Hence and he got a good post and I concur on Gormley, if the track is sloppy. I'll come back and post my actual bets tomorrow. Good luck!!

hey peeptoad, I recently touched base with a long lost cousin from a branch of my family in Louisville. I'm gonna mine this thread for Derby-related things to talk about. Thanks for posting it!

I'm betting #19 Practical Joke win/place/show, #17 Irish war Cry win/place unless his odds dip below 5/1 or so.
Also exacta: 17,19/1,5,8,10,11,12,14,16,17,19
exacta box: 5,8,14,15,19

might bet the tri as well.

Good to luck anyone betting!

I'm pretty sure State of Honor has no shot of going wire to wire but he's the rabbit that all will follow and he's a rabbit that knows how to hang on for place and show. At 30-1 ml and likely to float higher, he's my bombadier for a big price on my trifecta attempt. I scratched the idea of investing in the Supafecta...watch him now run fourth! Good luck and btw thx for creating a most enjoyable thread Peeps

Think I might throw a small superfecta box together. I know someome that his the super in a race up at Saratoga a few years ago and he retired on the money.

Good luck, Vincent!

Live odds: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/kentucky-derby-live-odds

If a person has any reservations at all on Always Dreaming, then you're getting a square price on almost everyone else.
E.g. Gormely is a dual G1 winner and he;s currently 23-1. Sheesh.

and if anyone here wants to watch later (race goes off around 6:30pm EST): https://www.kentuckyderby.com/party/watch

State of Honor is currently at 53-1
Keep on keeping on!

Give ya credit for including Looking At Lee...too bad you didn't have him included in your exacta box....outta maybe 60-70 players I know, nobody I knew was looking at Looking At Lee except you.

yeah, too bad I didn't have the winner in the box!